In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion. While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment. We present IC-Mamba, a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling interval-censored data with integrated temporal embeddings. Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143), enabling rapid assessment of content reach. By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures fine-grained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis). Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751 for narrative-level predictions). The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days. These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures. Code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/ic-mamba. An interactive dashboard demonstrating our results is available at: https://ic-mamba.behavioral-ds.science.

Content-based recommendation systems play a crucial role in delivering personalized content to users in the digital world. In this work, we introduce EmbSum, a novel framework that enables offline pre-computations of users and candidate items while capturing the interactions within the user engagement history. By utilizing the pretrained encoder-decoder model and poly-attention layers, EmbSum derives User Poly-Embedding (UPE) and Content Poly-Embedding (CPE) to calculate relevance scores between users and candidate items. EmbSum actively learns the long user engagement histories by generating user-interest summary with supervision from large language model (LLM). The effectiveness of EmbSum is validated on two datasets from different domains, surpassing state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods with higher accuracy and fewer parameters. Additionally, the model's ability to generate summaries of user interests serves as a valuable by-product, enhancing its usefulness for personalized content recommendations.

Leveraging users' long engagement histories is essential for personalized content recommendations. The success of pretrained language models (PLMs) in NLP has led to their use in encoding user histories and candidate items, framing content recommendations as textual semantic matching tasks. However, existing works still struggle with processing very long user historical text and insufficient user-item interaction. In this paper, we introduce a content-based recommendation framework, SPAR, which effectively tackles the challenges of holistic user interest extraction from the long user engagement history. It achieves so by leveraging PLM, poly-attention layers and attention sparsity mechanisms to encode user's history in a session-based manner. The user and item side features are sufficiently fused for engagement prediction while maintaining standalone representations for both sides, which is efficient for practical model deployment. Moreover, we enhance user profiling by exploiting large language model (LLM) to extract global interests from user engagement history. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets demonstrate that our framework outperforms existing state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods.